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Leading indicators and tendency surveys

Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, July 2019

 

Stabilising growth momentum in the OECD area

 

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08/07/2019 - Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, now point to stabilising growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole following last month’s assessment of easing growth momentum.

Among large OECD economies, only Japan and Canada have seen a change in assessment this month (to stabilising growth momentum from easing growth momentum last month) while in the United Kingdom last month’s tentative signals of stable growth momentum have now been confirmed, although large margins of error exist due to continuing Brexit uncertainty.

Among other major OECD economies, the CLIs continue to anticipate stable growth momentum in France and easing growth momentum in the United States and the euro area as a whole, particularly in Germany and Italy.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs continue to anticipatestable growth momentum in China (in the industrial sector), India and Russia, and now also in Brazil.

 

 Stabilising growth momentum in the OECD area

 Stabilising growth momentum in the OECD area

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